EventShifts
Shutdown Day 42:
House Poised to Vote After Senate Passage as Markets Price a Near-Term End
After forty-two days of a partial federal shutdown, the logjam finally looks ready to break. The Senate approved a funding package in a 60–40 vote Monday night, sending the bill to the House for final action as soon as Wednesday. The measure would extend funding for most agencies through January 30 and lock in three full-year appropriations bills, a hybrid approach meant to reduce repeat brinkmanship while giving negotiators a defined window to complete the rest. With the Senate finished and the White House signaling the president will sign the package if it reaches his desk, the central question has shifted from whether the government will reopen to how quickly House floor timing, travel logistics, and last-minute objections might affect the final duration.
Speaker Mike Johnson urged members to return to Washington early, noting widespread travel disruptions. Airlines planned to cancel roughly six percent of flights across forty of the nation’s busiest airports Tuesday to comply with an FAA directive—an escalation from earlier four-percent cutbacks—complicating the logistics of assembling votes but not the underlying momentum. Neither chamber met Tuesday because of the Veterans Day holiday, further concentrating focus on a mid-week House vote. Inside the Rules Committee, Republicans aired sharp criticism of a provision in the bill that would allow senators to sue for damages—up to $500,000—in cases of data seizures or subpoenas like those seen after the January 6 attack. Members such as Rep. Chip Roy called the language indefensible and said it should be fixed, while Rep. Austin Scott noted he personally supports removing it. Even so, both argued that amending the bill now would send it back to the Senate and risk prolonging the shutdown; the practical consensus was “pass the package, revisit the clause.” Roy also said he was unaware of any significant opposition from the House Freedom Caucus and indicated he would vote yes, a signal that the right flank is unlikely to mount a procedural blockade.
Meanwhile, the Supreme Court extended a brief stay related to a lower-court order on November SNAP benefits, effectively pressing pause while Congress advances toward a deal. That judicial move, paired with the Senate’s bipartisan vote and the House’s visible trajectory, reinforced the market view that the shutdown is in its final stretch. On Kalshi’s “How long will the government shutdown last?” market, traders are leaning into a near-term resolution: the platform’s forecast centers around 43.2 days with the “more than 42 days” contract near certainty, “more than 43” trading in the high-20-cent range, and “more than 44” around a dime at last snapshot. In plain terms, participants expect the shutdown to clear the 42-day mark and possibly tick into day 43, with diminishing odds that it drifts past day 44—pricing that maps cleanly onto a House vote mid-week and a rapid presidential signature.
The structure of the package also matters for what comes next. By funding most agencies to January 30 while fully appropriating three departments for the entire year, Congress narrows the scope of any future lapse and reduces the number of moving parts. That should lower tail-risk volatility after reopening, even as it sets a clear late-January decision point that will spawn new calendar-based markets and headlines. The contested data-seizure clause, though politically uncomfortable, is unlikely to derail the immediate process given the stated preference to fix it after passage; “pass now, amend later” is the path of least resistance. The larger story is procedural gravity: once the Senate locked sixty votes, the burden shifted to speed, not direction. Public comments from key conservatives minimized the risk of floor-level surprises, and the travel/FAA backdrop added urgency to finish.
For event-based traders, the playbook is straightforward. The base case is that the House clears the bill within a day or two once it reconvenes, the president signs quickly, and the shutdown ends in the 43–44-day window. A thinner tail exists in which procedural hiccups, weather or flight delays, or a last-second amendment nudge the timeline longer, but signals from leadership and Rules make that outcome less likely than the prices already imply. After the government reopens, attention will pivot almost immediately to January 30, when the next set of deadlines arrives and the mix of full-year bills and remaining stopgaps will determine whether volatility re-emerges or fades.
EventShifts will continue to track vote timing, whip counts, and any trailer legislation aimed at the disputed provision. As probabilities move, we translate process into positioning—focusing on timing, entry ranges, and confidence so members can act before the headlines catch up.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Prices and market references are illustrative and may change.